Impact of the recently identified 'false negative' PCR Tests from the Wolverhampton laboratory
Richard Winn said, 1635240539
GhostOfArielAdam It tells a story, although I am a bit surprised the increase wasn't earlier if the first errors were early September.
GhostOfArielAdam said, 1635241588
Richard Winn said
GhostOfArielAdam It tells a story, although I am a bit surprised the increase wasn't earlier if the first errors were early September.
It's all surprising. Case rates nationally declined for 10 days starting 6 Sep, South West more than other regions. This is when case rates "ought" to have been rising after schools returned.
Of course we don't know exactly which tests went where or what the processing errors were. Information doesn't seem to be forthcoming.
I can't believe the MSOA where I live (population 12,000) has 15% more Covid cases than China (population 1,400,000,000)
mph said, 1635242019
GhostOfArielAdam said
Richard Winn said
GhostOfArielAdam It tells a story, although I am a bit surprised the increase wasn't earlier if the first errors were early September.
I can't believe the MSOA where I live (population 12,000) has 15% more Covid cases than China (population 1,400,000,000)
It’s just possible that some country’s figures are not entirely reliable… ;)
GhostOfArielAdam said, 1635242501
mph said
GhostOfArielAdam said
Richard Winn said
GhostOfArielAdam It tells a story, although I am a bit surprised the increase wasn't earlier if the first errors were early September.
I can't believe the MSOA where I live (population 12,000) has 15% more Covid cases than China (population 1,400,000,000)
It’s just possible that some country’s figures are not entirely reliable… ;)
Ironic posting that on a thread all about the unreliability of the UK figures.
mph said, 1635242701
GhostOfArielAdam said
mph said
GhostOfArielAdam said
Richard Winn said
GhostOfArielAdam It tells a story, although I am a bit surprised the increase wasn't earlier if the first errors were early September.
I can't believe the MSOA where I live (population 12,000) has 15% more Covid cases than China (population 1,400,000,000)
It’s just possible that some country’s figures are not entirely reliable… ;)
Ironic posting that on a thread all about the unreliability of the UK figures.
True - but I’d still back ours against those of many other countries!
GhostOfArielAdam said, 1635242973
mph said
True - but I’d still back ours against those of many other countries!
I think we probably find a higher % of cases than most similar countries.
I think China finds pretty much all it's cases because it actively wants to shut down transmission completely and fiddling testing figures would be counter-productive to it.
mph said, 1635245748
GhostOfArielAdam said
mph said
True - but I’d still back ours against those of many other countries!
I think China finds pretty much all it's cases because it actively wants to shut down transmission completely and fiddling testing figures would be counter-productive to it.
But may or may not transparently report them…
Huw said, 1635248070
mph said
GhostOfArielAdam said
mph said
True - but I’d still back ours against those of many other countries!
I think China finds pretty much all it's cases because it actively wants to shut down transmission completely and fiddling testing figures would be counter-productive to it.
But may or may not transparently report them…
It helps compliance with self-isolating enormously if you handcuff people to a radiator for two weeks...
mph said, 1635248223
Huw said
mph said
GhostOfArielAdam said
mph said
True - but I’d still back ours against those of many other countries!
I think China finds pretty much all it's cases because it actively wants to shut down transmission completely and fiddling testing figures would be counter-productive to it.
But may or may not transparently report them…
It helps compliance with self-isolating enormously if you handcuff people to a radiator for two weeks...
Or indeed beat them in the street with sticks!
GhostOfArielAdam said, 1635256024
My area of 12,000 people has had more covid cases in the last 7 days than Tokyo, population 14 million.
Is that better?
mph said, 1635256279
GhostOfArielAdam said
My area of 12,000 people has had more covid cases in the last 7 days than Tokyo, population 14 million.
Is that better?
Clearly not - but I'm not sure what point you are trying to make?
GhostOfArielAdam said, 1635256354
mph said
GhostOfArielAdam said
My area of 12,000 people has had more covid cases in the last 7 days than Tokyo, population 14 million.
Is that better?
Clearly not - but I'm not sure what point you are trying to make?
Read the thread title ;)
mph said, 1635260014
GhostOfArielAdam said
mph said
GhostOfArielAdam said
My area of 12,000 people has had more covid cases in the last 7 days than Tokyo, population 14 million.
Is that better?
Clearly not - but I'm not sure what point you are trying to make?
Read the thread title ;)
Yes - but so did my area! - over 1,000 cases per 100,000 - and I'm a long way from South West!
mph said, 1635282446
The co-creator of the Oxford Covid vaccine has said it is wrong to "bash the UK" with accusations of high case ratesbecause world-leading testing means more infections are picked up than in other countries.
Prof Sir Andrew Pollard told the science and technology committee on Tuesday: "If you look across western Europe, we have about 10 times more tests done each day, per head of population.
"We do have a lot of transmission at the moment, but it's not right to say that those rates are really telling us something that we can compare internationally."
The UK has recently reported around 50,000 cases of Covid a day – the highest raw number and case rate per million people in western Europe.
However, it tests its population far more than other European countries, with around 13 tests per 10,000 people – twice as many as France and 10 times the rate in Germany.
Sir Andrew said that, when this was taken into account, the UK was no longer an outlier and was comparable to similar nations.
Germany has a positivity rate in excess of eight per cent, equivalent to one positive test for every 12 conducted. The UK, in contrast, has a positivity rate of just five per cent – the same as one test in every 20 coming back positive.
"I think when we look at these data it is really important not to bash the UK with a very high case rate, because actually it's partly related to a very high testing rate," Sir Andrew said. "I'm not not trying to deny that there's plenty of transmission at the moment, because there is – it's just that the comparisons are problematic."
Sir Andrew added that daily hospitalisation and death figures were "misleading" because the real-time data cannot discern between those who are admitted or die "with" Covid and admissions or deaths due to Covid.
"If you have a lot of transmission in the community, lots of people will die from lots of other causes that are not Covid but will be included in the numbers," he said.
"The death rates are quite misleading at a time of high Covid in the community. Secondly, the hospital admission data are also misleading because they're also generated in real time. So if I'm admitted for appendicitis today and I had a Covid positive test, that will appear in the daily data.
MidgePhoto said, 1635283074
1. unlikely to be in ICU with appendicitis.
2. Appendicitis admissions are, AFAIK, neither reduced nor increased by the pandemic. They may be delayed, but even then, point 1 above applies.
3. The counts of people in ICU being treated for COVID, and people in hospital on a particular day whose chief diagnosis is COVID are direct counts, not inferred from positive tests in the preceding 27 days.