Think looking at israel, which was/is the country in the world with the highest vaccination rate, they relaxed the rules before we did and have subsequently had to bring back the use of facemasks and are now looking at lockdown again.  If we follow similar pattern, and then I think we most likely will see another lockdown during the Autumn.  The biggest issue though is international travel and someone bringing back a new variant that comes in undetected and is more virulent than anything we currently know and the vaccines are rendered useless. 

I think the suggestion is that we are more likely to be the breeding ground for a new more virulent variant than one being brought into the country from outside.

O.P. says   "Will this become part of the general routine of life ??"

My view is it has to. There is no way we can keep going in and out of lockdown. We have to learn to live with it. Many places in the world live with diseases, and unfortunately those that don't or can't take precautions get problems. But in most cases, those that take precautions and are not complacent about the disease find a way through. The biggest killer in any disease like this is human complacency.

I am old enough to remember the polio epidemics of the 50's the Asian flu epidemic around the same time. It's from these that I learn't that handwashing was not an essential, it was an imperative. Where we walked around with handkerchief in our pockets that were washed in boiling water, we didn't have tissues then. It was a society that did not go around hugging one another unless you knew that person very well. We lived with disease around us every day, but we managed. Yes, people became ill, I had more than one friend that had Polio. But it was an accepted part of life.

This pandemic has brought home to people human frailty, we are not invincible. There is not a tablet that the doctor can give you for every disease. To me, a lot of people in this country became very complacent about taking precautions where diseases are concerned.

Having worked in many places where medical facilities leave a lot to be desired if they exist at all, I had to learn that the best way to deal with a killer disease is not to catch it in the first place. Get every vaccination one can for wherever one was going, even if it made you feel rough for a few days, it is far preferable to death. Take every precaution you can to avoid contact with that disease. My apartments used to stink of insecticide, but that was far better than getting dengue or malaria.

I am one of those that even though I have had both jabs will continue to wear a mask when I am in a supermarket or crowded place, I don't care what others think about it, at the end of the day I will do everything to protect my own life.

To me this is where this will end up, there will be those of us that take precautions and avoid the worst ravages of this disease and there are those that won't.

We cannot carry on locking down and bringing about economic chaos to protect those that won't protect themselves.

Orson Carter said

NeillR said

I am glad that in Scotland, we are a little later in the process and will hopefully get some insight from the England experiment. I'm really not convinced that the idea of "individual responsibility" is going to work.

Sadly, there's been ample evidence that not everyone takes individual responsibility seriously.  So if that's what's being relied upon to get us out of this, I reckon we're in for an even longer haul than anticipated.   

It doesn't really matter whether you personally take it seriously or not.

The Prime Minister, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Health Secretary and Leader of the Opposition are all in isolation. I'm pretty sure they haven't been tearing it up at nightclubs and the like.

Dennis Bloodnok Photography

Hi Dennis,

The latest data published by the ZOE Covid Sympton Tracker study shows quite clearly the the largest porportion of those getting Covid (as confirmed by testing) are still the UNVACCINATED. (Reported on 17 July 2021 as 36,250 unvaccinated vs 23,769). So one of your premises is not actually true.

If you were to tune into the BBC's 'More or Less' programme, there are a number of references that show quite clearly that, as the proportion of the vaccinated population grows to well over the unvaccinated population, and bearing in mind that no vaccine is perfect, it is inevitable that eventually the proportion of those who test positive with the virus despite being vaccinated will grow to greater that those who are unvaccinated (this is simple maths rather than any 'failure' of the vaccine!).

As an illustration. Take the case of a population of 50 million where 90% of the people are vaccinated with a vaccine whose efficacy is 85% (pretty good) with a risk of 0.01% that on any day a person will be exposed to the virus sufficent to give them a positive test if unvaccinated.

• Therefore the vaccinated population is 45 million while the unvaccinated population is 5 million.
• On a day then 50,000 of the unvaccinated will be exposed sufficient to get a positive test.
• On the same day 450,000 of the vaccinated will be exposed, but 85% of those will be protected by the vaccine sufficently to not get a positive test, ie only 67,500 of the vaccinated would actually test positive.

On that fictious example, more people testing positive are vaccinated than those who are unvaccinated. Does that mean the vacinates had failed?
No far from it - as a massive 382,500 more people would have been infected had they NOT had the vaccine.
If we then assume that for that variant 1% of those unvaccinated who were exposed would have been ill enough to go to hospital, while only 0.001% of the vaccinated, then the vaccines would have reduced the 500,000 of the whole population that would would have been hospitalised in this example before there had been vaccines to a mere 567 of which 500 of those were unvaccinated.

I appreciate this is 'playing with numbers', and real life is somewhat more complicated, but I hope it illustrates the point.

As Richard Winn points out to be considered 'vaccinated' you need to count only those that have had their full dose (ie two shots of AZ or Pfizer) at least three weeks before being exposed. Some of those 'vaccinated' who are getting positive tests currently fall outside that criteria. However some in the media and many more in social media are referring to them as having been 'vaccinated' rather than 'partially vacinated'.

For those that aren't aware, the Delta variant is NOT giving the 'standard' three symptoms the government still (now incorrectly) refers too, particularly (but not solely) in the partially vaccinated or fully vaccinated. If not aware of this, please look up the common symptons Covid is currently causing on 'Unvaccinated', or 'Partially Vaccinated', or 'Fully Vaccinated' as reported by the ZOE symptom tracker study (https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/new-top-5-covid-symptoms).

A

Mao Zhu 毛 猪 said

O.P. says   "Will this become part of the general routine of life ??"

My view is it has to. There is no way we can keep going in and out of lockdown. We have to learn to live with it. Many places in the world live with diseases, and unfortunately those that don't or can't take precautions get problems. But in most cases, those that take precautions and are not complacent about the disease find a way through. The biggest killer in any disease like this is human complacency.

I am old enough to remember the polio epidemics of the 50's the Asian flu epidemic around the same time. It's from these that I learn't that handwashing was not an essential, it was an imperative. Where we walked around with handkerchief in our pockets that were washed in boiling water, we didn't have tissues then. It was a society that did not go around hugging one another unless you knew that person very well. We lived with disease around us every day, but we managed. Yes, people became ill, I had more than one friend that had Polio. But it was an accepted part of life.

This pandemic has brought home to people human frailty, we are not invincible. There is not a tablet that the doctor can give you for every disease. To me, a lot of people in this country became very complacent about taking precautions where diseases are concerned.

Having worked in many places where medical facilities leave a lot to be desired if they exist at all, I had to learn that the best way to deal with a killer disease is not to catch it in the first place. Get every vaccination one can for wherever one was going, even if it made you feel rough for a few days, it is far preferable to death. Take every precaution you can to avoid contact with that disease. My apartments used to stink of insecticide, but that was far better than getting dengue or malaria.

I am one of those that even though I have had both jabs will continue to wear a mask when I am in a supermarket or crowded place, I don't care what others think about it, at the end of the day I will do everything to protect my own life.

To me this is where this will end up, there will be those of us that take precautions and avoid the worst ravages of this disease and there are those that won't.

We cannot carry on locking down and bringing about economic chaos to protect those that won't protect themselves.

Well said. Very true.

ChrisWoodman_Photography said

Think looking at israel, which was/is the country in the world with the highest vaccination rate, they relaxed the rules before we did and have subsequently had to bring back the use of facemasks and are now looking at lockdown again.  If we follow similar pattern, and then I think we most likely will see another lockdown during the Autumn.  The biggest issue though is international travel and someone bringing back a new variant that comes in undetected and is more virulent than anything we currently know and the vaccines are rendered useless. 

They (Israel) are not, 58% fully vaccinated.

The IOM is 66% fully vaccinated, UK 54%, Malta and Iceland 70%.

I suppose you need to define lockdown - so far we've had three but each time the rules are different so will we ever see anything as severe as lockdown 1, I doubt it as we now have a better understanding of what are dangerous and safe(r) environments. 

Will we face some restrictions particularly regarding crowded indoor venues at times of high hospitalisations (not cases) on a local or national basis, yes I believe we will. 

ChrisWoodman_Photography said

Think looking at israel, which was/is the country in the world with the highest vaccination rate, they relaxed the rules before we did and have subsequently had to bring back the use of facemasks and are now looking at lockdown again.  If we follow similar pattern, and then I think we most likely will see another lockdown during the Autumn.  The biggest issue though is international travel and someone bringing back a new variant that comes in undetected and is more virulent than anything we currently know and the vaccines are rendered useless. 

IBPhotos said

I think the suggestion is that we are more likely to be the breeding ground for a new more virulent variant than one being brought into the country from outside.

This is certainly the view from the international press that I'm exposed to.  It's frequently being referred to as the UK Experiment. :(

Dennis Bloodnok Photography said

Mao Zhu 毛 猪 said

<<SNIPPED>>

We cannot carry on locking down and bringing about economic chaos to protect those that won't protect themselves.

Well said. Very true.

Those who won't protect themselves could be described as evolution in action, if we were being harsh.

But it's also about protecting those who can't protect themselves.  Or are they sacrificial lambs for the economy/majority?

-sp●●n- said

They (Israel) are not, 58% fully vaccinated.

The IOM is 66% fully vaccinated, UK 54%, Malta and Iceland 70%.

While your figures maybe correct as of today, as a percentage of total population double jabbed (including children currently ineligible for a jab) they need more context.

The average age in Israel is 31, in the UK it's 40 and in the IOM 45 suggesting a higher proportion if school age (vaccine ineligible population) in the UK and especially in Israel. 

Israel passed 50% of it's population fully vaccinated in mid March, in the IOM that happened in late June and in early July for the UK suggesting Israelis have better established antibodies and a better understanding of what happens to fully vaccinated people facing further exposure to Covid.

The percentage of IOM residents fully vaccinated only passed those fully vaccinated in the UK in late June and those in Israel 10 days ago so while the recent vaccination drive in the IOM is impressive it maybe a little early to make any meaningful comparisons. 

(I've not overlaid the graphs for Malta and Iceland but would expect a similar recent uptick in the fully jabbed to the IOM and to find they have a younger demographic). 

Source of vaccination data: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations source of average age stat's - asking google rounding up or down to nearest whole year

Earlier in the year when Astrazenecca and Pfizer was trying to get approval all over the media we were told these vaccines prevented both hospitalization and deaths 100%, apart from the very few cases of adverse reaction a hospital visit is not required. This turned out not to be the case, people did still got infected and end up in hospital even after their 2nd jab. I heard from a BBC news the vaccine stops 90% of deaths so it saved many lives but it does not prevent deaths from the disease. I also heard antibody falls amongst vaccinated people after a month or two and booster jab is needed.

I'm one of those that delay having my jab by 3 months but followed safety guidelines and frequently tested and never had Covid even though I returned to work since last September. None of my family including elderly parents and extended families have caught Covid and some of them are school age children. There has been not much said in the media but I read about studies that some people, about 30% but varies, have natural immunity to Covid in their T Cells even though they are never exposed to Covid before. Of course I'm not willing to risk but if there was a test to confirm this immunity being offered I be interested.

Chantastic said

Earlier in the year when Astrazenecca and Pfizer was trying to get approval all over the media we were told these vaccines prevented both hospitalization and deaths 100%, apart from the very few cases of adverse reaction a hospital visit is not required. T

Where did you hear this? Or that antibody counts fail within a month or two?

I know the US government and the media in this part of the world were very clear that none of the vaccines were going to be 100% effective. In fact, for the majority of 2020, it was widely reported that partial successful vaccines--on par with the various flu vaccines--were going to be the most likely result and that the manufacturers and approving agencies were delighted at the 90% level results they were getting once they finished their clinical trials

Breakthrough infections have been expected, and the CDC and WHO have been very clear on that point. (I'd expect the NHS would have been as well.) In the cases of those who were reinfected, most have been asymptomatic.

"We are not seeing evidence at this point in time that waning immunity is occurring among people who were vaccinated back last December or January and that they are at higher risk of breakthrough infections,", said Dr. Jay Butler, head of the Covid-19 response at the CDC.  https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/rarely-covid-vaccine-breakthrough-infections-can-be-severe-who-s-n1274164 

Chantastic said

There has been not much said in the media but I read about studies that some people, about 30% but varies, have natural immunity to Covid in their T Cells even though they are never exposed to Covid before. Of course I'm not willing to risk but if there was a test to confirm this immunity being offered I be interested.

The only context I've heard for the "natural immunity" phrase is the response to an infection-related exposure to the virus. Can you elaborate on where you've read about such studies investigating un-exposed responses? I'm quite curious.

ToggyMcTogface at the end of the day the total % is all that counts, children still catch and spread the virus, so cannot be excluded from the overall %

Well, so far the gamble seems to have paid off. Cases haven't gone through the roof with unlocking, they have fallen, which has surprised nearly everybody (including the Government). It seems unlikely that we will be having another lockdown.

Things could take a turn for the worse again in autumn when the schools go back, or if another variant takes hold, but at the moment I think we will not be having any more lockdowns.

GhostOfArielAdam said

Well, so far the gamble seems to have paid off. Cases haven't gone through the roof with unlocking, they have fallen, which has surprised nearly everybody (including the Government). It seems unlikely that we will be having another lockdown.

Things could take a turn for the worse again in autumn when the schools go back, or if another variant takes hold, but at the moment I think we will not be having any more lockdowns.

The thing that really bothers me is that none of the projections suggested cases would drop and scientists are now trying to explain away this drop with things like:

It's the school holidays. Given this is a planned event shouldnt it be included in ne of the models?

People are reluctant to get tested because they want to go on holiday. Again this is pretty normal behaviour so it should be included in the model?

The general public are being more cautious since the 19th. Couldnt one line on the charts indicate what happens if people do that?

I have tended to believe the scientists up to around June 14 when it was clear that the charts they were using were selective in terms of what might happen. Given that their last set of charts were woefully wrong I think we are at least entitled to a press conference to explain why, especially as Sajid David said he expected cases to be 100k by August. As it stands at the moment if they doubled every 2 weeks they could reach that figure by the End of August but we are now 2 weeks into 'Freedom' and cases are still dropping.

At least after a general election pollsters tell us why they got it wrong, SAGE arent even doing that!