Will we go back into Lockdown ?? Will this become part of the general routine of life ??

Whether or not we will go back into a lockdown is really speculation. Everyone will have an opinion, but the decision will largely be a political one, based in part around what the science and modelling suggests at the time, but also on many other factors. In an interview yesterday, one of the scientists working on modelling said that the crystal ball doesn't stretch that far. The original reason for restrictions, was to prevent hospitals becoming overwhelmed, so hospitalisation and death rates will be the bigger factor if the same premise is applied.

Do you have a reliable link showing that most of those being infected have been doubly vaccinated? As far as I'm aware, the larger number of infections are amongst the younger age groups, who are yet to be vaccinated and have the requisite time to allow antibodies to develop. Certainly, the numbers of vaccinated people in hospital is proportionally lower than prior to vaccination. Remember that no vaccine is 100% effective, so there will be some who vaccination doesnt protect, although even among those who are infected after vaccination, the risk of serious disease is lower. There will bceoms a tipping point where the majority are vaccinated, that most infections will be in the vaccinated people, as there will be a relatively lower proportion of people who haven't been vaccinated.

Infection rates aren't soaring because nightclubs have opened, it is about a week too early for the effect of nightclubs opening becomes apparent, so the current increases are nothing to do with them opening. There are probably a number of different reasons, but the Delta variant is now the predominant starin and it is more transmissable than other variants, including the Alpha (Kent) variant that was more transmissable than the previous variants.

Edited by Richard Winn

Only time will tell. Just a few weeks ago the 19th July was seen as the end date to restrictions but reality has set in and the government has taken a more cautious tone due to the huge increase in infections. There is now a greater possibility or restrictions being imposed again if the numbers get out of hand.

With more people getting vaccinated the proportion of those who have been vaccinated and dieing as a result of covid also increases, that doesn't mean the vaccine isn't working, it reduces the risk of severe infection and death for most but there will, unfortunately, be those that will still die due to underlying health conditions and age. It is a vaccine not a cure after all.

I think we may have to go through another year or two of covid waves to really get a clear indication whether we can get back to normal or not and there will be a lot of bumps along the way.

My biggest concern is of a new variant that adapts to the vaccines reducing their effectiveness putting us back to early 2020 and having to play catch up again and huge loss of life as a result.

Theres people speaking to me they thought having their 2 jabs made them safe and not able to spread the coronavirus if they become infected so these are the clowns who had been walking around without masks on or social distancing!!

I know people who will not take the vacs yet still following the safety guidelines!!! So il say some vaccinated people are the shit spreaders!!

Edited by Lai Ang

My guess?

First week of September.

Huw said

My guess?

First week of September.

It will be interesting to see if The Photography Show at the NEC mid-September survives.

My own thoughts are pretty much in line with Huw .

But I also think that the government will resist for as long as possible. But if the hopitalisation rate continues to be managable, I think we will carry on as now.

To me, the problem is that we have to learn to live with this virus until it mutates beyond the highly infectious form that it is at the moment.

But it will be just like any virus; we live with colds, flu, measles and so on.

It's how we manage it that counts.

JJsPix said

My own thoughts are pretty much in line with Huw .

But I also think that the government will resist for as long as possible. But if the hopitalisation rate continues to be managable, I think we will carry on as now.

To me, the problem is that we have to learn to live with this virus until it mutates beyond the highly infectious form that it is at the moment.

But it will be just like any virus; we live with colds, flu, measles and so on.

It's how we manage it that counts.

Same here. They expect 100,000 cases a day as a central scenario. That would be 2,500 hospitalisations a day, which would likely result in the hospitals being overwhelmed within a few weeks.

We only have to look at what happened in the Netherlands to see what will happen here. The youngsters went to party town (and I don't blame them one bit).

However.... I don't think we'll go back into lockdown as we know it. We'll just close the superspreaders and maybe go back to the rule of 6 for pubs/cafes etc and compulsory masking.

To me the bigger threat is shortages of essential workers if the virus becomes too widespread. As soon as food shortages come into play (lack of delivery drivers, lack of supermarket staff) the government will have to act whether the NHS is overwhelmed or not. 

As you’ve just said that the largest percentage of people getting infected with Covid-19 are now those with both vaccines. (As mentioned in other threads by other people) according to your post…

So referring back to a post you made a few weeks ago yourself about only shooting with vaccinated people, will this have an impact on your proposed shoots or are you still adamant that you will only shoot jabbed possibly double jabbed models??? Just out of curiosity by the way.

I was of the opinion that the double jabbed were deemed as being in the percentage that were most immune/currently the least at risk of catching this and falling badly ill- again a link if you have one saying something different would be good.

We just seem to be in a circle again of school closures - even after now the 19th! So I wouldn’t be surprised if restrictions were reintroduced in September. Again it’s anyone’s guess.

I am glad that in Scotland, we are a little later in the process and will hopefully get some insight from the England experiment. I'm really not convinced that the idea of "individual responsibility" is going to work.

KarenR said

As you’ve just said that the largest percentage of people getting infected with Covid-19 are now those with both vaccines. (As mentioned in other threads by other people) according to your post…

So referring back to a post you made a few weeks ago yourself about only shooting with vaccinated people, will this have an impact on your proposed shoots or are you still adamant that you will only shoot jabbed possibly double jabbed models??? Just out of curiosity by the way.

I was of the opinion that the double jabbed were deemed as being in the percentage that were most immune/currently the least at risk of catching this and falling badly ill- again a link if you have one saying something different would be good.

We just seem to be in a circle again of school closures - even after now the 19th! So I wouldn’t be surprised if restrictions were reintroduced in September. Again it’s anyone’s guess.

Karen, I think the point is that the majority of vulnerable people are now vaccinated so death rate has dropped off (though by no means disappeared).

The elderly are so heavily at risk though that even with vaccination they still have similar chances to, say, an unvaccinated 50-year-old; hence they now make up most of the casualties.

For sure vaccinated people are at lower risk and - anecdotally at least - less likely to spread the virus, so choosing to work only with vaccinated people makes sound sense.

It is remarkable to me that the government has lifted almost all restrictions with infection rate soaring. As long as the virus runs out of control anywhere in the world the huge danger is mutation. We are a hair's breadth away from a variant which gets around the vaccine. My guess is restrictions will be back before long, and annual booster jabs / covid passports are the future.

The Times this morning reports that there were 46558 new cases of Covid in the UK yesterday.

This is the highest figure in the world.

This is a 41% increase since a week ago.

Deaths are up to 49 from 30 a week ago.

Hospital admissions are up 38%.

The R number...does anyone remember the R number...is 1.2 to 1.5.

It will be interesting to see whether this rate of change persists and if it does, whether any changes become necessary.

NeillR said

I am glad that in Scotland, we are a little later in the process and will hopefully get some insight from the England experiment. I'm really not convinced that the idea of "individual responsibility" is going to work.

This exactly what I fear this all is.

I go to my first indoor event in October, can't really decide if I'm worried about it or not, but it does quite feel like we're an experiment

Dennis Bloodnok Photography said

As indoor locations (EG Nightclubs) can now allow large numbers of people to enter (without wearing a mask) infection rates are skyrocketing. I am expecting that death rates will soon follow suit.

More a Branson than a Musk, for the vaccinated.

Freedom from plagues has been nice, but that historical window has run out.

What usually worked for 4 billion occasionally travelling with purpose by ship does not work so well for 7 billion frequently flying for fun.

NeillR said

I am glad that in Scotland, we are a little later in the process and will hopefully get some insight from the England experiment. I'm really not convinced that the idea of "individual responsibility" is going to work.

Sadly, there's been ample evidence that not everyone takes individual responsibility seriously.  So if that's what's being relied upon to get us out of this, I reckon we're in for an even longer haul than anticipated.