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Crypto theory

 

SteveDeansPhotography

By SteveDeansPhotography, 1652474998

I see the crypto market has halved since the start of the year. Down from 2.5 tr USD

Was it not always a form of pyramid selling, given the currency has no intrinsic value? Thinking in terms of mobile phones, they reached a saturation point eventually. And manufacturers like Nokia suddenly began to struggle. There's limited numbers of buyers for crypto?

When sellers outnumber buyers, what stops the wipeout?

I'm not totally dissing the concept, I see benefits in a currency that could be used globally, just questioning the valuation.

As an aside presumably Nft's have crashed too? :)

indemnity said, 1652475428

Perceived value, goes for anything, £52m for Ferrari 250 GTO?

SteveDeansPhotography said, 1652475645

indemnity wouldn't agree on anything. Bananas have a value based on paying the grower, the importer and the shop etc. And nothing above that.

Edited by SteveDeansPhotography

SteveDeansPhotography said, 1652475803

Also worth noting that always the latecomers are stung - and of course they don't generally return to buy more. The old rule - if the milkman is recommending a share it's time to sell etc.

So that removes millions of buyers.

I'll have to compare the crypto graph to the dot-com one

indemnity said, 1652476919

SteveDeansPhotography said

Also worth noting that always the latecomers are stung - and of course they don't generally return to buy more. The old rule - if the milkman is recommending a share it's time to sell etc.

So that removes millions of buyers.

I'll have to compare the crypto graph to the dot-com one


It's been up and down like hookers knickers, it will continue in a similar fashion I reckon.

Money is made on the change, not investing in it's long term value.

Edited by indemnity

SteveDeansPhotography said, 1652477032

indemnity the change could be relentless falls now though

Unfocussed Mike said, 1652477290

Yes. It's a distributed biggest-loser system. Not literally a single Ponzi scheme because Ponzi schemes are usually more closely held and run explicitly, but there have been explicit Ponzi schemes within it, and in sum it has the effect of a Ponzi scheme because everyone in the system knows they depend on two things:

1) everyone with currency holding onto their currency -- hence the unironic advice to "never sell", or "HODL" (hold on for dear life) 

2) everyone else "buying the dip"

The crashes this week are the consequence of structural decisions that are reminiscent of the 2008 crash; the idea of an "algorithmic stablecoin" is a nonsense, and has only ever worked because this biggest loser market has convinced itself that no instability can be so bad as to break the stablecoins; they've convinced themselves in particular that Tether, the psychological backstop of the entire industry, is a robust scheme, when it is not.

It doesn't really compare to the dot-com crash because that was really a crisis of overvaluation through a lack of investor knowledge (like the videogames crash of the 1980s). There are dot-com crashes coming (in media, for example) and there may be a dot-com crash coming more generally in the tech sector, even if just at Elon Musk's house. 

It's much, much more like the 2008 crash because every participant is knowingly holding their investments at arms' length; they all know that what they are buying and selling is a fiction that only has worth to those who are using it to avoid scrutiny of their financial misdeeds.

 

 

Edited by Unfocussed Mike

SlashStreetPhotography said, 1652477237

I'm so glad I steered clear.

indemnity said, 1652478129



SteveDeansPhotography said

indemnity the change could be relentless falls now though


Yeah, not the first time hit $27k yesterday some today 100% drop....how money is made is similar to the trading platforms CFDs which as we know the people attracted to it usually lose in fact roughly 80% lose over all trades. The platform is the winner a bit like bookies.

SteveDeansPhotography said, 1652478138

SlashStreetPhotography when BTC was £1 ? ;)

SlashStreetPhotography said, 1652478275

SteveDeansPhotography

If anyone got in at the price and got out at £50,000 per BTC then well played. I'm happy for you.

I'll choose my own path.

SteveDeansPhotography said, 1652478781

Unfocussed Mike was just reading about tether. That seems to be a big blow for holders

Unfocussed Mike said, 1652478811

SlashStreetPhotography said

SteveDeansPhotography

If anyone got in at the price and got out at £50,000 per BTC then well played. I'm happy for you.

I'll choose my own path.

20% of the BTC wealth of those who got in early is unrecoverable due to lost wallet passwords and other technical failures.

There are many, many people walking around who are effectively shadow multimillionaires in the crypto system; people who cannot ever sell.

Unfocussed Mike said, 1652479454

SteveDeansPhotography said

Unfocussed Mike was just reading about tether. That seems to be a big blow for holders

Yeah. But the important thing to grasp, I think, is that Tether isn't just the technical underpinning of a lot of the wider system, it's also kind of the psychosocial underpinning of it. A lot of investors get into cryptocurrency because they hear about stablecoins and they believe Tether's (clearly unrealistic) assertions of 1:1 fiat currency backing. The existence of stablecoins -- and in particular the existence of Tether, which is the big one -- underpins a lot of that "getting in on the ground floor" or "buying the dip" that people in the milkman-investor class are urged to do. 

Tether -- which ordinary consumers definitely cannot use to directly cash out to USD, unless they have more than $100K of value -- is also held up as an early example of the kind of technology "coming soon" that will make it easier to access the wealth they accrue in their investments (i.e. actually spend it on anything other than other cryptocurrencies and cartoon drawings of anthropomorphised apes).

Other means to spend cryptocurrency directly on real-world things have not really emerged, largely because of the high transactional cost. (You can't even use them on Steam anymore.)

In short: Tether is a big part of the picture sold to underinformed investors, and the entire system depends on the arrival of new buyers, because it is a biggest loser system. If there are no new buyers, nothing in the system has any value at all. All of those new buyers have to have the promise that they will be able to spend their winnings.

Edited by Unfocussed Mike

SteveDeansPhotography said, 1652479306

Unfocussed Mike anyone that bought a nft thoroughly deserves to be struggling to pay the leccy bill now. Chris Morris should have thought of it for Nathan barley.

-sp●●n- said, 1652479550

As an actual currency which you can buy things with, BC is actually quite worthless, to buy something for $5 might have $5 processing fees added on and takes 2 - 4 hours to validate the purchase. You could not think of a worse medium for buying and selling.

So yes a ponzi scheme, and a waste of energy.